Praetorian Global / Early warning

Canary

Early warning, in numbers.

A daily count of the events that come before coups, killings, prosecutions and wars, turned into probabilities you can watch move.

As of

Events logged in 90 days
259
Questions tracked
14
Biggest move today
+8.7 ptsRussian attack on NATO soil
  • Force and violence
  • Espionage, detention and coercion
  • Unrest and succession
  • Sanctions

The globe shows published events from the last 90 days at their approximate location. The same events are listed in the feed below.

What this is

A disciplined way of watching.

A trigger event is something that tends to come before a larger one: an espionage arrest, a sanctions package, a missile test, a minister removed. Every morning a machine reads the world’s press and official records, logs each new trigger event, and gives it a severity from one to five and a source grade from A to D.

Each question starts from a base rate drawn from history. Every relevant event adds weight, and that weight fades over about four months. The sum moves the probability up or down from the base. A probability covers the whole horizon of its question. Nothing here predicts a single day.

The weights are judgement, not fitted to data. The track record is being built and will be published. Treat the numbers as a disciplined way of watching pressure build, not as an oracle.

14 standing questions

The questions.

Each figure is the probability that the event happens within the horizon shown. The faint line is the base rate.

Gulf of Guinea · 180 days

Coastal West Africa coup

37%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

NATO Europe · 180 days

Russian attack on NATO soil

47%+8.7 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

Europe · 180 days

Iranian attack in Europe

87%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 35%

Iran · 90 days

New foreign detainee in Iran

92%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 60%

Taiwan Strait · 180 days

PLA blockade or force on Taiwan

74%+8.1 pts since the previous day
Base 50%

China · 180 days

Western executive held in China

73%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 50%

Russia sanctions · 90 days

Third-country Russia sanctions

87%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 60%

United States · 180 days

Attack on a US national figure

29%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

Mexico · 180 days

Federal-level killing in Mexico

21%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 10%

Iran · 180 days

Rupture at the top in Iran

19%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

Horn of Africa · 180 days

Ethiopia–Eritrea war

68%+1.8 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

South Asia · 180 days

India–Pakistan strikes

26%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

United States · 180 days

DOJ charges a PRC agent in government

49%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 30%

Movers · 17 October 2026

What moved today.

Up

Down

Nothing fell by half a point or more.

    Replay

    Watch the pressure build.

    6 mornings of forecasts. Drag through them, or play them at two seconds a day.

    1. Sahel coup51%
    2. Coastal West Africa coup37%
    3. Russian attack on NATO soil47%
    4. Iranian attack in Europe87%
    5. New foreign detainee in Iran92%
    6. PLA blockade or force on Taiwan74%
    7. Western executive held in China73%
    8. Third-country Russia sanctions87%
    9. Attack on a US national figure29%
    10. Federal-level killing in Mexico21%
    11. Rupture at the top in Iran19%
    12. Ethiopia–Eritrea war68%
    13. India–Pakistan strikes26%
    14. DOJ charges a PRC agent in government49%
    17 October 2026

    Event feed

    What was logged.

    Published events from the last 90 days, graded A or B. Newest first.

    84 published events

    • Military signalling and force

      Crude tanker MT ST 3 with 15 Indian crew hit by projectile in the Strait of Hormuz; no injuries, India says

      Strait of HormuzThe National ↗

    • Civil war

      Abiy names a six-month caretaker government for Tigray with an election promised within that period

      EthiopiaJust Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗

    • Military signalling and force

      Bulgaria formally asks NATO to deploy combat aircraft and anti-drone systems after drone attacks on Black Sea shipping

      Bulgaria/Black SeaJust Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗

    • Military signalling and force

      Drones hit two tankers in and just outside Romanian waters off Sulina; Wine Trader ablaze with seven crew missing

      RomaniaFirst of its kindAl Jazeera ↗

    • Military signalling and force

      Houthi attacks hit Abha, Najran and Jazan airports; drone intercepted over Khamis Mushait and cruise missile over Medina

      Saudi ArabiaGulf News ↗

    • Assassination and political violence

      Gunmen in a bakkie kill two ANC members canvassing door-to-door in Umgababa, KZN south coast; one wounded

      South AfricaTimesLive ↗

    • Sanctions

      OFAC designates Iranian exchange-house network incl. Iraq Development Bank, Chabahar and Jazireh banks, Hong Kong's Elitesphere

      Iran/Iraq/Hong KongUS Treasury OFAC ↗

    • Sanctions

      EU lists three individuals and nine entities in Russia, Türkiye, UAE, India and Seychelles for circumventing Russia sanctions

      European Union/Türkiye/UAE/India/SeychellesCouncil of the European Union ↗

    • Transnational repression

      Hamburg court jails two men for spying on prominent Jewish figures and preparing attacks on behalf of the IRGC Quds Force

      GermanyIran International ↗

    • Military signalling and force

      Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a cruise missile over the Medina region; Houthis deny any attack that day

      Saudi ArabiaFirst of its kindMalay Mail (AFP) ↗

    • Sanctions

      OFAC designates Cuba's state Banco Internacional de Comercio (BICSA) under EO 14404

      CubaFirst of its kindUS Treasury OFAC ↗

    • Detention of foreign nationals

      FSB detains Swedish national, 35, in Pskov region, alleging he fought for Ukraine's Aidar battalion and entered to sabotage military sites

      RussiaThe Moscow Times ↗

    • Civil war

      Houthi missiles hit al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden, killing five incl. two PM bodyguards; Houthis also attack Dhubab airport

      YemenFirst of its kindAl Jazeera ↗

    • Civil war

      Federal forces and Tigray Peace Force enter Aksum; ACLED reports Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border via Zalambessa

      EthiopiaAl Jazeera (AFP/Anadolu) ↗

    • Enforcement posture

      Russian Alexander Suvorov extradited from Sweden to New York, charged with smuggling US dual-use electronics to Russia via Hong Kong

      United States/Sweden/Hong KongUS Department of Justice ↗

    • Civil war

      Army Antonov strike on a house in RSF-held Abu Zaeima, North Kordofan kills five children from one family

      SudanAl Arabiya (AFP) ↗

    • Military signalling and force

      Philippines rebukes Chinese ambassador Jing Quan's 'if we want to use force, we may easily win' remark as a thinly veiled threat

      PhilippinesGMA News ↗

    • Assassination and political violence

      FBI probes 100-plus suspicious white-powder letters sent to election offices in 13 states and to Senators Padilla, Murphy and Schumer

      United StatesVotebeat ↗

    20 further events graded C or D are counted but not published.

    Method

    How it is counted.

    Categories

    Espionage
    Arrests, charges and convictions for spying, and expulsions of intelligence officers.
    Transnational repression
    States reaching across borders to watch, threaten or coerce exiles, dissidents and their families.
    Detention of foreign nationals
    Detentions, trials and sentences of foreign or dual nationals, and related state punishment.
    Enforcement posture
    Prosecutions, extraditions and regulatory action that show how hard a state is enforcing.
    Sanctions
    New designations and packages, counter-sanctions, and their suspension.
    Coup activity
    Attempts, plots, purges and manoeuvres inside juntas.
    Civil war
    Offensives, territorial gains and mass-casualty strikes in internal wars.
    Unrest
    Protests, riots, curfews and emergency rule.
    Assassination and political violence
    Killings, attempts, plots and credible threats against political figures, officials and journalists.
    Military signalling and force
    Strikes, incursions, exercises, deployments and signalling between states.
    Leadership succession
    Health, absence, appointments and contests at the top of a state.

    Severity

    1. 1 · Signal
    2. 2 · Low
    3. 3 · Significant
    4. 4 · Serious
    5. 5 · Critical

    Source grade

    1. A Official record
    2. B Major wire or national press
    3. C Regional or single outlet
    4. D Unverified or contested

    Weight

    An event’s weight fades over about four months, and the lift any question can take from events is capped, so a burst of reporting moves a probability without pushing it to certainty.

    What is withheld

    Events graded C or D count towards the probabilities but are not listed, because they can name people under live allegations. 20 are withheld in the current window.

    Canary is operated by Cato & Veil, part of Praetorian Global, and updated each morning, London time.

    PerspectivesNotes on evidence, judgment and the order of action. A mandateWhen the pressure is yours, a confidential first conversation.

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